Chicago Cubs update on Justin Steele is a brutal reality check

The Chicago Cubs, throughout the offseason, were regarding Justin Steele as a bit of an ace up their sleeve.

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The team would be going into the regular season with a five-man staff of Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon, and Shota Imanaga. However, the lefty ace would not be far behind, lurking in the shadows and finishing up his rehab from elbow surgery in April of 2025.

Originally, the target comeback date was the All-Star break. Then, with things going smoothly, that target turned to May-June.

A flexor strain in April put the kibosh on the feel-good vibes. Now, from the looks of things, not only is a return to the rotation not going to happen, but Steele’s ability to pitch—at all—this season seems increasingly unlikely.

A sobering update

Mar 27, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Justin Steele (35) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

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On Wednesday, Cubs manager Craig Counsell offered an update on the soon-to-be 31-year-old and where he’s at physically.

“Justin saw the doctor yesterday and, really, all is good,” Counsell told reporters. “It’s progress. We’re in good shape. We move forward. So, he’s basically gonna continue what he’s doing. He’ll start hitting the mound probably, like, the first week of August.”

Counsell would also issue a more sobering update on what can be expected from the southpaw this season.

“Stretching out as a starter is really not realistic with the calendar …. The schedule is very tight with Justin, and it doesn’t leave (room) for a lot of things to happen, there’s no question about it.”

Counsell’s words echo the update offered by Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer a little over two weeks ago in an interview on 104.3 The Score.

“It’s probably unrealistic to think he’s going to be fully stretched out at any point,” Hoyer said. “If he does help us, I think it’s going to be in shorter bursts…We have to hope that he can, potentially, come back at the end of the year and help us and [with] improved health headed into the offseason so that we know we’ve got a really good pitcher for next year.”

A realistic timeline for Steele’s return

MLB: Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs Apr 7, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Justin Steele (35) delivers against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Given the nature of his injury and the setback suffered in recovery, Steele may not get back to serious throwing until the end of August and then he’d need at least a couple of rehab outings in the minors to get his feet back under him. And this is all under an absolute best case scenario.

Realistically, if the team is lucky, they could get him back at some point in September as one of the team’s call-ups when rosters expand. That’s definitely not ideal when the expectation was a high-profile spot in the starting rotation mid-season. But the Cubs could do a lot worse than a well-seasoned lefty with a considerable track record of success behind him as their fourteenth pitcher.

Steele has a 3.30 ERA over his 5-year run with Chicago and has been the team’s most consistently effective starter since he became a full-time rotation piece. In the three years from 2022 through 2024, he was also regarded as one of the top starters in all of major league baseball.

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