Chicago Cubs facing big problems in Padres series, per analyst

The Chicago Cubs are not exactly heading into Tuesday night’s Wild Card series against the San Diego Padres in a great position.

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Not only did they squander a 6.5 game lead (and home field advantage) atop the NL Wild Card standings for the opening playoff series, but they also played inconsistent ball over the final month of the season—posting a .500 record in the month of September.

So, now they must face a red-hot Padres team that posted an 18-6 record in the last month of the regular season—and they must face them in three straight games at Petco park, where they’ve gone 51-30 this year.

Aside from the momentum issues, the Cubs must also overcome the doubts and question marks swirling around their pitching staff as a unit. The bullpen has been wildly unpredictable—looking inconsistent at best and, at worst, on the verge of total collapse. The starting rotation, meanwhile, has also been spotty, with two of the team’s key starters—Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes—struggling late in the regular season.

The Cubs’ top-rated offense and defense will make them a potentially formidable opponent for any team, but postseason success seems to lean heavily on pitching and momentum. That certainly doesn’t bode well for Chicago

“I can’t see the Cubs surviving this”

Mason Miller, Chicago White Sox — Jul 12, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller (22) celebrates after the Padres beat the Toronto Blue Jays at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

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Veteran MLB analyst Ken Rosenthal, speaking on the Foul Territory podcast, talked up the difficulties facing the North Siders as they get ready for the Wild Card series, offering a bleak outlook.

“In their last 32 home games, the Padres…they were 26 and 6. That’s pretty good,” Rosenthal said. “So that is going to be a problem for the Cubs. I don’t see the Cubs surviving this. I see the Padres winning it, but we’ll just have to see how this all goes down. It’s gonna be a fascinating series because the Cubs have been a tremendous team all year. One of the best offenses in the league, one of the best defenses in the league. The Padres don’t play defense quite as well.”

“Tatis got hot. Jackson Merrill got hot,” Rosenthal continued. “Manny Machado, you could say it’s his worst season, still hit 30 home runs, still did some really big things down the stretch. So the Padres are in that place where they are a momentum team.”

But Rosenthal’s take is just one of many for a series that many feel will be closely contested.

Cubs over Padres?

Sep 16, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) high fives third baseman Alex Bregman (3), center, and manager Craig Counsell (11), right, after hitting a home run during the third inning against the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

David Adler of MLB.com, for example, sees the Cubs getting by the Padres in three games:

“Maybe the Padres will make us eat our words, especially at home, where they’re 51-30 this season. But Crow-Armstrong is at the peak of his powers and we think the Cubs are going to rally around their soon-to-be MVP. Their pitching might be questionable, but they’re an offensive powerhouse and their defense is the best in the Majors.”

In assessing head-to-head matchups, Adler gives Chicago the edge at second base, shortstop, third base, catcher, left field, center field, and designated hitter while San Diego gets the nod at right field, first base, the bullpen, and starting rotation.

The Cubs-Padres Wild Card battle begins Tuesday evening at 9:00 pm CT and will be broadcast on Peacock and NBCSN.

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