Chicago Cubs: Is Trevor Rogers a desirable target?

To a few’s surprise, the Chicago Cubs don’t appear to be preparing for a bidding war for Tarik Skubal, per reports. They will add pitching, but it’s hard to imagine top guys such as Skubal or Michael King landing on the North Side. Maybe Freddy Peralta, but that could be too steep a cost, depending on what teams are offering him after a down season.

One intriguing name on the market is lefty Trevor Rogers (assuming he does not take the qualifying offer). He is arguably the guy right between the tier 1 and tier 2 starting pitching free agents this year. His overall track record is good; he will get a nice chunk of change (estimated market value: $26.3 million), but he doesn’t come without risks or questions.

Is Rogers worth the investment, and a realistic one?

The Cubs have to invest in pitching; they are too thin not to. Rogers isn’t that far off Peralta’s estimated market value ($28.7 million), so seeing who the Cubs are seriously in on this offseason could potentially help gauge if they are serious suitors for a guy like Rogers. It should be realistic if the Cubs think he’s a good fit, but time will tell.

Rogers is a career 3.88 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.98 xERA pitcher in 689.2 innings between the Marlins and Orioles. He’s dealt with nagging injuries over his career, though no severe elbow issues. Rogers features a 93-94 MPH fastball, with a changeup, sinker, sweeper, and cutter.

Last season, he posted a 4.03 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 3.45 FIP, 8.3 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 169.2 innings. The ERA and FIP/xERA numbers suggest he pitched better than the frontline stats suggested. He was in the 92nd percentile in chase and walk rate, while between the 62nd and 67th percentile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That said, his groundball rate dropped roughly 8%, and he surrendered a career-high 19 homers, with whiff and strikeout rates around average.

If no Skubal, King, and Peralta, Rogers is one of the better on-paper options. There’s risk; he is not a fireballing, dominating pitcher, and his profile is a bit redundant to what the Cubs have featured in recent years. However, his tenure in Baltimore, where he rebounded after derailing in Miami, was overall good, and bringing in a solid lefty is nice to have.

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