The Ducks Screwed Themselves

I think it’s important we set some axioms for discussion of Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson signing an offer sheet with Philadelphia, because it helps a superficially mindblowing contract feel something closer to logical—both in that the Flyers were wise to offer it, and in that the Ducks would be fools not to match it. The first thing to be agreed upon is that Carlsson is very, very good: 21 years old, putting up better numbers every year, 67 points in his third season. Whether you think he’s neared his ceiling already or whether you believe he’s got much more room to grow, he’s a great and valuable player right now, full stop. He’d be a 1C on something like 20–25 teams in the NHL, certainly on the Ducks or Flyers, and 1Cs don’t come cheap.

The second thing to agree on is that while the Flyers’ offer of $18 million a year over five years sounds like a lot, it’s going to be the new normal very soon. Kirill Kaprizov’s $17M-a-year deal kicks in this year, and while Carlsson will briefly be the NHL’s highest-paid player, it won’t be for long. Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes should be up there within a year; I can’t even conceive of what Nikita Kucherov is going to get. Salaries are up because the salary cap is up: the projected cap in 2027–28 will be exactly (and coincidentally?) $18 million higher than it was last season. By the end of his deal, Carlsson’s salary will be roughly the same percentage of his team’s cap that Auston Matthews’s is today, and Toronto would do that again in a heartbeat.

The third truism here is that draft picks are overrated. The Flyers would have to give the Ducks their next four first-round picks. With Philadelphia a young team on the rise, those probably won’t be lottery picks. Go ahead and pick four guys drafted 17–32 in recent years—no really, try it—and you’ll be highly unlikely to land anyone nearly as good as Leo Carlsson. You could argue that Philly’s picks are more valuable as potential trade bait, and I’d agree with you, but again: Who is Philadelphia going to trade for that’s better than Carlsson?