Chicago Cubs now share top Wild Card spot, and are trending downward

The Chicago Cubs came into the 2026 season as the heavy favorites to win the NL Central Division—and there was plenty of reason to support such an idea.

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Last year’s NL Central champs, the Milwaukee Brewers, had traded away starting pitcher Freddy Peralta and were missing a few other components to their successful 2025 team.

Chicago, meanwhile, had added third baseman Alex Bregman, starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, and almost a whole new bullpen against the subtraction of the disappointing Kyle Tucker.

And for awhile, it sure looked as though the Cubs had finally overtaken the Brewers as top dogs of the division. Then, as usually seems to be the case these days, Milwaukee just flipped a switch and ran away with things.

As things stand right now, the Brewers lead the second place Cubs by 8 games with just 25 games to go in the season. Despite having 7 head-to-head games remaining, it’s highly unlikely that the Cubs will overtake their division rivals.

But over the course of the season, as the race for the division got further and further out of reach, the Cubs could at least take solace in the fact that they had a commanding lead atop the NL Wild Card standings.

But now, after a 3-7 run in their last 10 games, that solace is gone.

The Phillies have caught the Cubs

May 12, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a Chicago Cubs hat and glove in the dugout before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

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The hot Philadelphia Phillies are now sharing that top Wild Card spot with the Cubs and trending upwards, just as the Cubs have started to fade.

Stephen J. Nesbitt and Chad Jennings of The Athletic laid out Chicago’s schedule realities and how they don’t really favor the Cubs as the final leg of the race to the postseason begins:

“The Cubs would have to overcome extreme odds (3.1 percent) to overtake the Brewers for the NL Central crown. But if it’s going to happen, it’ll start here with seven head-to-head matchups in the next 10 days.

The Cubs have lost four of six to the Brewers this season. They’ve been beaten twice by Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, who is slated to face them in both of the upcoming series.

The rest of the schedule doesn’t get a whole lot easier for the Cubs: Marlins (twice), Braves, Red Sox. The only sub-.500 opponents remaining on the Cubs’ schedule are the Pirates and Reds.”

The playoff picture

Chicago Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ — Sep 27, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner (2), center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4), left fielder Ian Happ (8) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) watch from the bench during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

While, in theory, there’s not a whole lot of advantage coming from being the first Wild Card seed over the second, in this case it could mean the Cubs getting stuck playing the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs in Los Angeles—and that certainly wouldn’t be ideal.

Mentally, being overtaken by the Phillies could also take its toll on a team previously brimming with confidence and swagger.

Barring some crazy turn of events, the Cubs will make postseason play. But given how they look right now, they just aren’t clicking like a team destined to go far in the playoffs. The bullpen has been off and the starting pitching has been inconsistent.

There’s still plenty of time to turn things around and get hot at just the right time, though. And the time to make that run is now, with the Brewers coming to Wrigley.

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