Chicago Cubs: Should Shota Imanaga’s rotation spot be in jeopardy?

The Chicago Cubs’ pitching woes continued Sunday night as starter Shota Imanaga got tagged for six runs, including three more homers. Imanaga has surrendered 33 homers in 150.1 innings pitched on the season. That’s a 1.98 HR/9.

One has to wonder if Imanaga is pitching himself out of the rotation, especially with September callups coming. Note that Javier Assad has been starting games in Iowa and is staying stretched out. Assad has a 3.46 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 4.97 FIP in 83.1 MLB appearances this year.

Per Craig Counsell, he’s not getting the pull yet. However, one still has to wonder if he is on thin ice.

Craig Counsell said Shota Imanaga’s spot in the rotation/job is not in jeopardy at the moment. Team wants to help him get right.

— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) August 31, 2026

Where Imanaga stands right now

If one is looking at some very basic stats, it does not look like Imanaga is worthy of losing a rotation spot right now. He sports a 4.01 ERA, 8.86 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP, and even an xFIP of 3.89. None of those numbers are statistically bad. Not to mention he’s had some effective stretches this season. How does someone with a respectable ERA, solid strikeout/whiff rates, and good WHIP feel like he’s been much worse?

With that said, the home runs are outrageous. Even for a flyball pitcher who was going to give up a handful regardless. His actual FIP this year is 4.79 and is in the sub-20th percentile in Barrel %. He’s given up 91 homers in 463.1 career innings. Even when he was doing well in 2024, he was giving up a lot of homers. Per OptaSTATS, he has more starts than any other lefty pitcher in MLB history where he’s surrendered three homers this season.

Tonight marks the 6th time this year Shota Imanaga has allowed 3 or more homers in a game.

That’s the most by any lefty in a single season in MLB history. pic.twitter.com/ZTc0dHSpe3

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) August 31, 2026

Still, how thin of ice is he on? He is not a starter candidate for a potential Wild Card series; that’s a given. The thing is, he’s often a ticking time bomb. He can roll for a few innings, and then two bloops and a blast change the entire game. Early in a season? Easier to take. In crunch time? It’s less acceptable. It hurt them in last year’s playoffs to the point where Counsell elected for a bullpen day in a winner-take-all Game 5 on the road.

Imanaga might not be quite as bad as made out to be at times, but the flaws are so big.

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