Chicago Cubs are getting the best Dansby Swanson back just in time

The Chicago Cubs may be close to clinching a playoff spot, but the battle for home field advantage will rage on throughout the final week of the regular season.

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As things stand right now, the Cubs and the San Diego Padres share the top spot in the National League Wild Card standings (although Chicago has the tie-breaker between the two). The Philadelphia Phillies, however, are just a game behind the top two.

In other words, the important top Wild Card seed is completely up for grabs. As a result, there will be no time to ease up and relax before the start of the postseason. The Cubs will very much be in sustained “all men on deck” mode, likely for the remaining seven guys of the regular season.

That’s why the return of shortstop Dansby Swanson is such a big deal.

Swanson’s bat

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On Saturday, in the Cubs’ 5-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark, he went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a run scored. Since returning from an oblique strain, he’s gone 3-for-7 with 3 runs scored.

“I said this is a little bit of uncharted territory for me,” Swanson told Marquee Sports Network after the game. “I’m just extremely blessed to be able to be out here. I’m just so thankful for all the support that this team has given me to be able to get back on the field. And just grateful for the guys for holding it down while I was gone. And it’s good to be able to win tonight.”

The veteran’s bat returning to the potent lineup is a big deal. He’s contributed to the team having the most potent lineup nine-spot in baseball. He’s also a notoriously streaky hitter who can do big damage when he’s hot.

The veteran’s defense, however, is what really makes his return important for the team’s playoff chances. Saturday saw him make an uncharacteristic throwing error, but that can be chalked up to rust from his IL stint and the lack of any real rehab assignment.

Dansby’s MVP-level defense

Generally speaking, though, Swanson is a defensive MVP.

While second baseman Nico Hoerner did a great job filling in during the injury, the team’s infield defense did suffer without Swanson playing every day.

Matt Ostrowski of North Side Baseball crunched some numbers and came up with some solid data showing just how important Swanson actually is:

“Exactly how much did his one month on the injured list end up hurting the North Siders? We can reach a rough approximation of this using the Fielding Run Value (FRV) stat at Baseball Savant. In the 125 games that they played prior to Swanson’s injury, the Cubs led all of baseball in this statistic, having saved 61 runs above average. That was a whopping 23 runs more than the second-place Cardinals…

In their 27 games without him, they saved seven runs above average, just eighth-best in baseball. They went from saving almost half of a run per game (above average) to about a quarter of a run…

…The Cubs were fifth in FRV from their shortstops prior to Swanson going down, and in the month since, they only dropped to eighth…the Cubs went from eighth in FRV at second base when Hoerner was the primary player at the keystone, all the way down to 18th with Ramírez as the primary guy…

According to FanGraphs, the Cubs allowed a .219 batting average on groundballs with Swanson in the fold, and that jumped to .229 in the month that he was on the injured list.”

Swanson is programmed to have an off day on Sunday, but he’ll be counted on the rest of the way as Chicago fights for playoff positioning.

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