Daniel Palencia’s fall from grace is seen in his last 60 pitches

The Chicago Cubs have navigated much of the 2026 season without Daniel Palencia, who led the team in saves a season ago. Oblique and elbow issues limited him to just 19 appearances before the All-Star break, but since returning he hasn’t been all that inspiring on the mound, leading manager Craig Counsell to continue to use him in lower leverage spots.

Since being activated on August 21, Palencia has pitched in seven games, allowing runs to cross in four. While two out of his last three have been scoreless, his inability to get swings and misses over his last 60 pitches has stood out as a red flag. As highlighted below by Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation, he’s generated just one whiff over his last three outings.

Daniel Palencia got 1 whiff on 19 pitches last night. Last time out, 0 whiffs on 16 pitches. Before that? 0 on 13 pitches. Before that? 0 on 12 pitches. You’re reading that correctly. Palencia has gotten just 1 single swing & miss over his last 60 pitches.

LOUD CONCERN SOUNDS.

— Brett Taylor (@Brett_A_Taylor) September 10, 2026

What is wrong with Chicago Cubs reliever Daniel Palencia?

A few weeks ago, Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy discussed Palencia’s struggles, attributing his poor outings to two primary issues: being mechanically out of sync and lacking confidence. Both are crucial elements for any pitcher expected to thrive in high-leverage situations.

Furthermore, Palencia’s velocity has dipped below his 99.2 MPH season average in each of those outings. He averaged 97.9 MPH on September 2, 98.2 MPH against the Marlins, and then fell to 97.8 MPH against the Brewers. At this point in the season, particularly after dealing with a pair of injuries, that is not the trend the Cubs want to see. The diminished velocity could also help explain why his fastball has struggled to generate swings and misses.

Ultimately, Palencia’s recent struggles over his last 60 pitches should have the alarm bells sounding. The combination of diminished velocity, mechanical inconsistency and wavering confidence has taken away some of the traits that made him such a dangerous high-leverage option for the Cubs year ago.

However, with Chicago’s bullpen facing increased scrutiny following several recent losses, the Cubs don’t have many obvious alternatives. The most likely options would be to option Palencia in favor of Shelby Miller or, perhaps, Justin Steele, should either make an unlikely return to the big leagues this season after both underwent Tommy John surgery in 2025.

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