Chicago Cubs: Suzuki’s free agent worth behind only Skubal’s, per Fangraphs

The Chicago Cubs have a lot of work ahead of them if they want to be serious playoff contenders next season.

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They’re going to have to pretty much rebuild their entire starting rotation. They’ll need some steady, sturdy bullpen reinforcement. They’ll also have to find a catcher and two starting corner outfielders to replace starters likely leaving via free agency.

The loss of one of those corner outfielders will hit especially hard.

Right fielder Seiya Suzuki has been a solid cornerstone presence in Chicago’s lineup since being brought over from Japan in 2022. Over the last couple of seasons, he’s made himself an especially important piece of the Cubs’ offensive scheme with back-to-back career years.

But now he’s a free agent—regarded by many as the top position player of a weak 2027 free agent class. As such, he’s expected to pull in a prodigious multi-year contract despite being 32.

Seiya Suzuki’s worth

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Fangraphs actually has Suzuki nabbing the second-highest contract of the 2027 free agent class (in terms of AAV), behind only Tarik Skubal. They see him getting a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $24-$27 million per season.

Suzuki’s right-handed bat is the major selling point for the Japanese star. However, his vast improvement on defense—cinched by a Gold Glove nomination this past season—makes the long-term investment in him even more sound.

Per Fangraphs:

“Mind the gap! I think Suzuki will get 75% less guaranteed money than Skubal, but he’s the best hitter available this winter, and his career year — 4.5 WAR, 26 homers, Gold Glove finalist recognition — couldn’t have come at a better time. If Suzuki can play plus defense at a corner outfield spot and stay healthy – his last two seasons are his two healthiest – he’s an All-Star for at least the next few years. And there’s no question at all about his bat; he’s played five seasons in the majors, and his worst wRC+ was 118.

Teams have mostly gotten out of the business of giving long-term contracts to hitters over 30, but when they do, it’s for bat-first types who have few holes in their game, and that describes Suzuki perfectly. He checks the three boxes of good eye, good contact, and good power, which gives him room to have a down year in one area and still be viable. I think that the uncertainty around the economic structure of the game will keep him from getting five-plus years, but that shouldn’t stop him from getting the second-biggest AAV in the class.”

Outside the Cubs’ comfort zone

Whatever the case, a $100 million+ deal appears to be well beyond what the Cubs would feel comfortable spending on a position player with such a great need for pitching right now. Although they offered Suzuki the $23.1 million qualifying offer for 2027, that’s really more of a way to get at least some draft pick consideration for their inevitable loss. Nobody expects Suzuki to accept the one-year offer.

It remains to be seen what the Cubs’ plans will be to replace both Suzuki and Ian Happ in the outfield.

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